On 8 October 2026 the Automobile Association (AA) published an open letter to the Ministry of Finance. It says early Central Energy Fund data signals a further petrol rise of up to R4.58 a litre in November, with wholesale diesel up R2.56 to R2.91 and paraffin up R5.00, and it asks Treasury to cut fuel taxes by R3 first. The AA represents motorists and is campaigning for lower fuel taxes, so this note treats the forecast as a claim to test, not as a fact. The AA's other statements, and the replies to them, are reported the same way: dated and attributed.
The test gives a split verdict. The record price is real and already at the pump. Another rise in November is likely, because every reading so far points up. But R4.58 was the first and highest reading, and the average has since eased to R3.35. Government has two levers, a fuel levy cut at roughly R6bn a month and a R10bn relief Bill before Parliament. Neither is in use.
01Where the Price Is Now
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources raised petrol 95 by R3.33 a litre on 7 October, taking the inland price from R26.92 to R30.25. It is the first time petrol has cost more than R30, and it passes the previous record of R28.06 set in June. Wholesale diesel (500ppm) rose by R2.84 to R31.95.
Against a year ago, petrol is 39.9% dearer and diesel 65.2% (FVP calculation). Since February's low of R20.10, petrol has risen by R10.15 a litre.
The cause is international. Of October's 333c increase, 329c came from higher international fuel prices, as average Brent crude rose from $87.89 to $101 a barrel. The rand averaged R16.21 to the dollar, almost unchanged. The pressure was already visible in inflation: Stats SA's August figures show fuel up 20.0% on a year earlier, and headline inflation of 4.4% would have been 3.7% without it.
Will petrol really rise by R4.58 in November, and what would it take to get there?
02The Claim Tested
The AA's letter gives increases, not pump prices. Added to R30.25, R4.58 gives about R34.83 a litre (FVP calculation). The Central Energy Fund's (CEF) daily under-recovery data, which shows how far today's price sits below the cost of imported fuel, is both the source of the AA's figure and the best early guide to November.
On the AA's own words. The letter says early CEF data "signals a further rise of up to R4.58 a litre for petrol in November", or R4.29 for petrol 93. Its note to editors adds that the figures are projections and are recalculated daily. It gives no forecast beyond November. An earlier version of this note tested R35 and R40 figures from an SABC post of 10 October; no AA document carries them, so the letter's forecast is used instead.
On the AA's position since April. On 12 April its chief executive told IOL the AA wanted "the whole tax structure to be set aside completely until this conflict is over", with no figure attached. On 6 October he told EWN that government could afford a R3 levy cut. On 8 October the open letter set out five asks, which the next section tests. Between mid-April and early October we found no AA statement on fuel.
On what the data says now. The average eased to R3.77 by 7 October and R3.35 by 9 October, and the daily reading on 7 October was R1.35. On the latest average petrol reaches about R33.60, which is R1.23 below the AA's figure. That is still serious: R3.35 would match October's record rise of R3.33, and R4.58 would be 38% bigger (FVP calculation). For diesel, TopAuto reported an average of R1.97 by 9 October, below the letter's R2.56 to R2.91.
On what would make the AA right. To close the R1.23 gap, the average for the pricing month would need about $5 more on Brent crude, taking it to roughly $107, or a rand about 86c weaker, at roughly R17.40 to the dollar. That uses October's pass-through of about 25c a litre for every dollar on Brent and about R1.40 a litre for every rand on the exchange rate (FVP rule of thumb).
03The Policy Lever: Fuel Taxes
The AA's letter asks Treasury to cut fuel taxes before the November adjustment. Four facts frame that lever, and the AA's five asks are tested below them.
What the taxes are
Four fuel taxes add R6.58 to every litre: the general fuel levy (R4.10), the Road Accident Fund levy (R2.25), the carbon levy and customs duty. That is 21.8% of the pump price, or 24.6% with the slate levy (FVP calculation). The AA's letter says 25%, which matches only if the slate levy is counted.
What a R3 cut buys
A R3 cut, as in April, would offset about 90% of November's latest projected rise and leave petrol near R30.60 instead of R33.60 (FVP calculation). It lowers the level of the price, not the trend (FVP view).
What it costs
Treasury put a R3 cut at about R6bn a month, and the April to June relief cost R17.2bn. Relief for November and December would cost about R12bn. The R10bn in the Bill before Parliament equals a R3 cut for about seven weeks (FVP calculation).
Where Treasury stands
We found no Treasury reply to the AA's letter. In September the Finance Minister told Parliament that relief must be balanced against spending, tax and borrowing. On 31 July he tabled a R10bn transfer to the Central Energy Fund, which a parliamentary committee backed on 8 October. No vote is scheduled.
Because the levies are fixed in rands, the tax share falls as the price rises: R6.58 would be 18.9% of R34.83 (FVP calculation).
The AA's five asks, tested. The asks are from the open letter of 8 October. The AA's two tax asks add up to R5.25 a litre; the sum is ours, not the AA's.
One: R3 off fuel taxes before November, paid for by cutting waste. It would offset about 90% of the latest reading, or about two-thirds of the AA's own R4.58, at about R6bn a month on Treasury's April estimate (FVP calculation). No Treasury reply found.
Two: abolish the R2.25 Road Accident Fund levy. The levy is 7.4% of the pump price (FVP calculation). On the AA's own figure it collected R47.8bn net in 2025/26, and the letter does not say what would replace it. No reply from the Fund found; its annual report reportedly seeks R3. The Deputy Transport Minister was reported on 5 October, before the letter, as saying a smaller levy in a hybrid funding model is being considered.
Three: a public review of the basic fuel price formula. In October, 329c of the 333c rise came through that formula (DMPR). A review already exists: the DMPR Minister told Parliament in September that the margin review ends in March 2027. No DMPR reply to the AA found.
Four: a Central Energy Fund plan within 90 days to rebuild the strategic fuel reserve. We have no official stock data to test it. The fuel slate was R10.45bn negative at end-August (DMPR). No reply from the Fund found.
Five: employers to review transport allowances and allow one remote day a week. On a commute of 88 litres a month, one day in five is worth about R532 a month, twice the R264 from a R3 levy cut (FVP calculation).
Who else has spoken. None of the following was replying to the AA; each made its own call in the same week. Cosatu (8 October) urged Parliament to pass the R10bn Bill and asked for levy cuts in October and November. Fedusa (6 October) called for R3 a litre off immediately. Among political parties, listed alphabetically, ActionSA, the ANC's study group on mineral and petroleum resources, the ATM, the EFF and the MK Party each called for fuel relief or a pricing review between 6 and 8 October. Investec's Annabel Bishop says a levy cut is warranted; Momentum's Sanisha Packirisamy prefers targeted support and says repeated relief sets unrealistic expectations.
April 2026: the levy relief
South Africa has already run this experiment once this year. When fuel prices jumped in April, Treasury cut the general fuel levy by R3 a litre from 1 April, taking petrol's levy from R4.10 to R1.10. Half was restored in June and the rest in July. In October there was no relief, so the same kind of increase landed on a different balance sheet.
Fiscus absorbs · April
Petrol rose to R23.36 instead of about R26.36 (FVP calculation). The relief cost R17.2bn in revenue, which the AA's letter puts at about R17bn. Treasury said it was covered by higher-than-expected tax revenue and underspending.
Household absorbs · October
The full R3.33 reached the pump. A commuter using 88 litres a month pays R759 a month more than a year ago (FVP calculation). In an Old Mutual survey in April, 47% of working South Africans had already dipped into savings.
04What the Data Cannot Tell Us
November's number will move. The CEF's daily figures are unaudited and recalculated every day, and the final adjustment is set on the average for the whole month. Readings for petrol ranged from +R1.35 to +R4.58 within three days.
The savings evidence is a survey, not an official statistic. Old Mutual's Savings & Investment Monitor polled 1,519 employed South Africans earning R8,000 or more a month in April 2026. It predates the October increase and leaves out lower earners and the unemployed.
Some figures are not verified against official documents. These are the monthly 2026 and October 2025 prices (news tables), the carbon levy and customs duty, the AA's April letter, its R47.8bn figure for the Road Accident Fund, the Fund's reported request for R3, and the text of the R10bn Bill. The R35 and R40 figures reported by SABC News on 10 October are not in any AA document and are no longer used.
"No reply found" is a search result, not a fact about the body. It means no public reply to the AA had turned up by 11 October. The AA's numbers also differ from official ones in places: its letter says petrol is up "about a third" since January, which matches the rise to September; with October's increase the rise since February is 50.5% (FVP calculation).
The record price is a strong signal: it is official and already at the pump. A further rise in November is a moderate one, because every reading points up but the size is open. The AA's R4.58 is weak as a central case: it holds only if the early highs return. Fuel relief stays open: there are two routes, a levy cut and the R10bn Bill, and neither has a date.
- Motorists. The working number for November is about R33.60, not the R34.83 the AA's figure implies: a 50-litre tank at R1,680 against R1,513 today. Watch the mid-October CEF reading.
- Taxi and bus commuters. The rise reaches them later, through fares. Passenger transport services were already up 11.6% in August. Watch Santaco's fare decision; none had been taken by 7 October.
- Households with debt. Fuel and interest costs are rising together: 64% of working South Africans held a personal loan in April. Watch September CPI on 21 October and the November rate decision.
- Transport and logistics. Diesel is the bigger shock: wholesale 500ppm is 65.2% dearer than a year ago. Watch the diesel line in the CEF data and how fast fuel surcharges pass through.
- Retailers. Fuel takes a first claim on take-home pay before the festive season; 47% had already dipped into savings. Watch food and transport in October's CPI on 18 November.
- Banks and lenders. Affordability tightens where credit already bridges the month: mashonisa loans rose from 12% to 19%. Watch the November rate decision and early arrears.
- Employers. Transport becomes a pay issue: the illustrative commute costs R759 a month more than a year ago. Watch allowance and remote-day requests in wage talks.
Next checkpoints: September CPI and the mini-budget on 21 October, a National Assembly date for the R10bn Bill, then the November adjustment on 4 November, which is also local election day. A rise of R4.58 or more would bear out the AA's figure.